Mega Charizard X ex: Rarity, Value, and Pull Rates (2025)

There’s a reason collectors are talking about Mega Charizard X ex—it’s a black-and-blue beast that’s become the card to chase in Pokémon TCG’s new Phantasmal Flames set. With its Special Illustration Rare treatment and powerful Inferno X attack, this card has sparked both excitement and sticker shock. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand the hype, here’s what you need to know about its rarity, market value, and pull rates.

Current Market Value (Near Mint): $830–$870 · Set: Phantasmal Flames (PFL) · Rarity: Special Illustration Rare (SIR) · Card Number: 125/094 (or 109/094)

The following table summarizes the key specifications of Mega Charizard X ex.

Is the Mega Charizard X EX rare?

How rare is it to pull a Mega Charizard X?

Mega Charizard X ex appears in Phantasmal Flames in at least three different rarities. The Ultra Rare variant (109/094) has a pull rate of 8.06% (±0.75%) — about 1 in 12 packs, according to SLAB‑Z, a data-driven Pokémon TCG analytics site. The Special Illustration Rare version (125/094) is far harder: 1.25% (±0.31%), or roughly 1 in 80 packs. And the rarest form, the Mega Hyper Rare, sits at just 0.08% (±0.08%) — that’s about 1 in 1,260 packs.

What makes it rare compared to other cards in the set?

• It’s a Special Illustration Rare — the highest illustration tier in the Scarlet & Violet era.
• The card numbers (125/094 and 109/094) indicate it’s a secret rare that extends beyond the official set count.
• Its attack, Inferno X, scales with Fire Energy discarded, making it both collectible and playable.

What this means: Within Phantasmal Flames, the Mega Charizard X ex SIR is the most chase-worthy single, but its rarity pales next to the 0.08% Hyper Rare version. Most buyers will encounter the Ultra Rare — not the SIR — in their booster boxes.

How much is a Pokémon Mega Charizard X EX?

What is the current market price?

Near Mint copies of the Special Illustration Rare are trading in the $830–$870 range (SLAB‑Z market data). The Ultra Rare variant sits much lower at about $46 as of recent listings. In Japan, the Mega Hyper Rare (MUR) started at roughly JPY 100,000 ($660–$700) at release, according to SNKR DUNK, a Japanese sneaker and card market tracker. Prices have fluctuated: there were daily swings from JPY 77,000 to JPY 90,000 in early October 2025.

How much can I sell my Mega Charizard X EX for?

Resale value depends heavily on condition. Graded PSA 10 copies of the SIR have been listed on eBay between $1,200 and $1,500. Raw Near Mint copies sell for $830–$870. The Ultra Rare variant is a low-tier seller at roughly $46. For the best return, grade the card first — SLAB‑Z notes that modern chase cards often double in value at PSA 10.

What factors affect the price?

• Condition: Near Mint vs. graded Gem Mint can mean a $300+ gap.
• Variant: The SIR and MUR command high premiums; the standard Ultra Rare does not.
• Market timing: Japanese prices moved from JPY 77,000 to JPY 90,000 in just days (SNKR DUNK daily tracker).
• Supply: Low pull rates for the SIR keep supply tight, supporting current prices.

The catch: Prices for modern chase cards tend to peak shortly after release and then settle. Early buyers who pulled the SIR and sold in the $800s may have already caught the high point.

What are the odds of pulling a mega Charizard X ex?

How rare is it to pull a Mega Charizard X?

As mentioned, the Ultra Rare (109/094) hits in about 1 in 12 packs (8.06%). The Special Illustration Rare (125/094) is roughly 1 in 80 packs (1.25%). The Mega Hyper Rare is the rarest: 1 in 1,260 packs (0.08%). SLAB‑Z’s analysis of over 700 packs provides these estimates.

What are the pull rates for Phantasmal Flames packs?

• Double Rare: 20.77% (±1.12%) — about 1 in 5 packs
• Ultra Rare: 8.06% (±0.75%) — 1 in 12 packs
• Special Illustration Rare: 1.25% (±0.31%) — 1 in 80 packs
• Mega Hyper Rare: 0.08% (±0.08%) — 1 in 1,260 packs

The trade-off: To have a reasonable chance at the SIR, you’d need to open about 2 booster boxes (72 packs). For the Hyper Rare, expect around 35 boxes — a $4,000+ gamble with no guarantee.

What is the #1 rarest Pokémon card?

Is Mega Charizard X ex the rarest card?

No. While Mega Charizard X ex is the rarest chase card in Phantasmal Flames, it is not the rarest Pokémon card ever. The title of #1 rarest is widely awarded to the Pikachu Illustrator promotional card from 1998, of which only 39 copies were ever distributed (SNKR DUNK context on rarity). Other contenders include the 1st Edition Shadowless Charizard and the Prerelease Raichu.

Which cards are considered more rare?

• Pikachu Illustrator — 39 copies known, last auction $375,000+.
• 1st Edition Shadowless Charizard (Base Set) — approximately 1,000–2,000 PSA 10 copies.
• Mega Charizard X ex (SIR) — print run not disclosed, but pull rate suggests thousands of copies in circulation.

Why this matters: Rarity isn’t just pull rate — it’s print run size, distribution method, and historic preservation. Mega Charizard X ex is a modern card with a high print volume; it will never be as rare as vintage promotional cards.

Is there a Pokémon card worth $300,000?

Which card is worth $300,000?

Yes — the Pikachu Illustrator card sold for over $375,000 in a private sale in 2019 (SNKR DUNK reference). A PSA 10 1st Edition Charizard sold for $336,000 in 2021. No modern card, including Mega Charizard X ex, has crossed six figures.

How does Mega Charizard X ex compare to that value?

The Mega Charizard X ex SIR currently sits under $1,000 — a far cry from $300,000. Even the most expensive modern chase card, the Umbreon VMAX (Moonbreon), peaks around $1,200 raw (Evolving Skies Booster Box guide). The $300,000 club is reserved for vintage, ultra-rare, high-grade cards. Mega Charizard X ex will not join that club unless the print run is discovered to be extremely small.

The implication: Buyers hoping for a $300,000 payday should look elsewhere. This card is a solid modern investment, but its ceiling is in the low thousands.

Three chase cards, three very different rarity profiles. The Mega Charizard X ex sits between a modern high-end chase and a once-in-a-lifetime artifact.

“The Special Illustration Rare variant of Mega Charizard X ex appears in roughly 1 in 80 packs — that’s a 1.25% hit rate. For the Mega Hyper Rare, you’re looking at 0.08%, or about 1,260 packs. These are among the lowest pull rates we’ve recorded for a modern set.”

SLAB-Z pull rate analysis team

“The Japanese market saw the Mega Charizard X ex MUR price swing from JPY 77,000 to JPY 90,000 in just three days in early October 2025. That kind of volatility is typical for a new chase card before supply catches up.”

SNKR DUNK market commentary

For collectors in the U.S. considering a purchase, the choice is clear: buy the Special Illustration Rare raw at $830–$870 and grade it if you want the highest resale potential. Avoid the Ultra Rare at $46 unless you just want a binder copy. The Hyper Rare is a lottery ticket — fun to chase but a poor investment. And never expect modern cards to reach six figures: that’s the realm of vintage grails with three-digit print runs.

Frequently asked questions